Mesoscale Discussion 0620
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

   Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast NM...TX Trans Pecos

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 151925Z - 152200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
   next few hours, with some strong to severe storms probable. Primary
   severe threat will be strong damaging wind gusts, although a few
   instances of hail are also possible. General convective trends will
   be monitored closely for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing (both
   spatially and in depth) cumulus field across much of the southern
   High Plains. Deepest cumulus as well as highest number of lightning
   strikes have occurred from roughly TCC (in east-central NM)
   southward to west of FST (in the TX Trans Pecos). Surface
   observations within this corridor reveal temperatures in the mid to
   upper 80s and dewpoints in the low 50s. Mesoanalysis is estimating
   little to no convective inhibition remains. Given the airmass
   destabilization, persistent convergence along the lee trough coupled
   with orographic effects and increasing large-scale forcing for
   ascent, attendant to an approaching shortwave trough, will likely
   result in additional storm development throughout the afternoon.

   Deep boundary-layer mixing is ongoing and any storms that do develop
   will move into an environment very conducive for damaging wind
   gusts. Some hail is also possible, but modest deep-layer vertical
   shear and marginal buoyancy should restrain the overall hail
   potential. Given the likelihood for strong storm outflow, individual
   storm persistence will likely be limited but additional development
   along storm outflow appears probable.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   33530516 34900475 34570332 31340271 30540304 30590410
               31970492 33530516