ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152344 
SPC MCD 152344 
KSZ000-OKZ000-160045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Areas affected...southern Kansas through northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 152344Z - 160045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage,
primarily over southern Kansas this evening. The primary threat will
be isolated large hail, but a few instances of downburst winds are
also possible.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening a stationary front extends from
northeast OK through southern KS. The atmosphere is moderately
unstable in the vicinity of this boundary with up to 2500 J/kg
MUCAPE along with steep (7.5-8 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Storms
are in the process of developing along/north of this boundary and
activity should increase in coverage as the low-level jet
strengthens this evening. Vertical wind profiles are weak, so
multicells should be the primary mode. Nevertheless, a few instances
of large hail may occur with initial storms before activity begins
to weaken by late evening.

..Dial/Grams.. 05/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38380042 38289822 37229604 36659646 37369856 37810063
            38380042 

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