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Mesoscale Discussion 634 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021
Areas affected...Central/East TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 161715Z - 161915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms possible this afternoon
across portions of central and east TX. Isolated damaging wind gusts
are the primary threat.
DISCUSSION...Regional satellite and radar imagery reveals a pair of
MCVs across the southern Plains, one over central OK and the other
along the middle TX Coast. Modest southerly low-level flow exists
between these two features, roughly along and east of I-35. The
thermodynamic environment is expected to remain only marginally
buoyant, with overall buoyancy tempered by the limited diurnal
heating. Even so, thunderstorms are expected to persist while
gradually drifting eastward throughout the day.
Surface winds have been backing a bit more southeasterly just ahead
of the storms, which, when coupled with the modest low-level
southerly flow and westerly flow aloft, result in a kinematic
profile that could support a supercell or two. Damaging wind gusts
would be the primary threat with any stronger updrafts/supercells,
with some low-probability potential for a brief tornado as well.
Marginal and isolated nature of the severe threat is expected to
preclude the need for a watch.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 31549740 32299689 32619581 32419494 31799459 30429490
29919706 30389770 31549740
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