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Mesoscale Discussion 634
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0634
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

   Areas affected...Central/East TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161715Z - 161915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms possible this afternoon
   across portions of central and east TX. Isolated damaging wind gusts
   are the primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...Regional satellite and radar imagery reveals a pair of
   MCVs across the southern Plains, one over central OK and the other
   along the middle TX Coast. Modest southerly low-level flow exists
   between these two features, roughly along and east of I-35. The
   thermodynamic environment is expected to remain only marginally
   buoyant, with overall buoyancy tempered by the limited diurnal
   heating. Even so, thunderstorms are expected to persist while
   gradually drifting eastward throughout the day. 

   Surface winds have been backing a bit more southeasterly just ahead
   of the storms, which, when coupled with the modest low-level
   southerly flow and westerly flow aloft, result in a kinematic
   profile that could support a supercell or two. Damaging wind gusts
   would be the primary threat with any stronger updrafts/supercells,
   with some low-probability potential for a brief tornado as well.
   Marginal and isolated nature of the severe threat is expected to
   preclude the need for a watch.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31549740 32299689 32619581 32419494 31799459 30429490
               29919706 30389770 31549740 

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