ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170006 
SPC MCD 170006 
KSZ000-170100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0644
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Areas affected...West-Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 170006Z - 170100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Southwestward propagating convection with a localized
hail/wind threat likely to continue through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a small cluster of storms
developing along and south of a stationary boundary paralleling the
I-70 corridor. These cells are developing within a northwesterly
mid- and upper-level flow regime in the wake of an MCV located in
eastern Kansas, and on the eastern periphery of an instability axis
situated across the western half of Kansas, characterized by
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Given the weakly sheared environment,
storms have and will likely continue to be somewhat disorganized,
with pulse updrafts and renewed convective development occurring
along their southwestern flank. Severe hail and gusty outflow winds
can be expected with this activity for a few more hours.

..Karstens/Grams.. 05/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   39019895 38649855 38209875 37669962 37780015 38390023
            38839958 39019895 

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