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Mesoscale Discussion 651
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0651
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

   Areas affected...Southeast/East-Central NM...TX South Plains...TX
   Permian Basin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 171911Z - 172115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated with the next hour
   or two across far southeast NM/far southwestern TX Panhandle/western
   Permian Basin. Supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible
   and a Tornado Watch will be issued to cover the severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over about 45
   miles northwest of ROW. A dryline extends southeastward from this
   low through much of southeast NM before arcing back more southward
   across the TX Trans Pecos. Northward returning low-level moisture
   also results in an effective warm front, which extends from the
   surface low northeastward through De Baca County NM and then back
   southeastward through the TX South Plains. Deepen cumulus has been
   observed within the area between these two boundaries, with a few
   orphan anvils recently noted. 

   Expectation is for eventual convective initiation along the dryline
   as it continues eastward/northeastward. Air mass across the region
   has become moderately unstable, with mesoanalysis estimating 1000 to
   1500 J/kg of MLCAPE is in place with little to no convective
   inhibition. Effective deep layer shear is currently around 30 to 40
   kt, with a gradual increase anticipated over the next few hours as
   the shortwave trough moves through. 

   Overall environment supports initial supercells capable of all
   severe hazards, including very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in
   diameter) and tornadoes. Some upscale growth is anticipated over
   time, which will result in a transition to strong wind gusts as the
   primary severe threat.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/17/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31470323 32660376 33620409 34150526 34690498 34940358
               34570160 32710115 31220165 31470323 

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