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Mesoscale Discussion 653
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0653
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

   Areas affected...Northwest TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 183...

   Valid 172153Z - 172330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 183 continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
   locally severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be
   possible into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...At 2145Z, strong thunderstorms have developed along an
   outflow boundary across portions of northwest TX. Relatively strong
   heating on both sides of the boundary has largely removed MLCINH, so
   continued intensification and development is expected into the early
   evening. Moderate-to-strong instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg),
   effective shear of 35-45 kt, and steep midlevel lapse rates will
   support very large hail (potentially baseball-size or larger) with
   the strongest cells. While low-level flow is currently weak, some
   tornado risk may evolve with any supercell interacting with the
   boundary, especially as the low-level jet begins to increase toward
   evening. With generally steep low-level lapse rates across the area,
   isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. Some upscale
   growth is possible this evening in conjunction with the intensifying
   low-level jet, which would increase the threat of damaging wind with

   ..Dean.. 05/17/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32089963 32080031 32080032 32080033 32080051 32080054
               32090067 32250066 32620066 32740066 32960066 34310052
               34750042 34750038 34750012 34750000 34469936 34419926
               34409926 34219895 34209895 32969895 32509910 32089963

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