Mesoscale Discussion 0654
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0510 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

   Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...southeast Colorado...and
   portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...

   Valid 172210Z - 180015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will continue in the
   near term, especially across northeast New Mexico into the
   northwestern OK/TX Panhandles. The potential for severe wind may
   increase into the early evening hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar and GOES IR trends show a few
   discrete supercells, along with severe semi-discrete clusters,
   developing along the higher terrain of northeast NM/southeast CO and
   along a dryline across far eastern NM and west TX. Sporadic severe
   wind and hail have been reported with this activity with 1 inch hail
   recently noted across eastern NM and a 51 knot convective wind gust
   reported at KLVS in northern NM. 

   In the near term, the potential for severe wind and hail will
   continue across all of WW 181, though the corridor of highest severe
   potential will likely reside from northeast NM into the
   west/northwestern OK/TX Panhandles region. Across this area, steep
   low-level lapse rates (near 9 C/km) are overlapping with 35-45 knots
   of effective bulk shear as well as near 30 knots of 0-3 km bulk
   shear (noted in regional VWPs), which will continue to support a
   large hail threat and perhaps increase the potential for severe
   winds as discrete/semi-discrete storms gradually grow upscale this
   evening. 

   Further to the north across southeast CO, storm motions have largely
   been slow and along the axis of initiation, and continued upscale
   growth is anticipated for the next few hours. Instances of severe
   hail are possible with any stronger updraft pulses, but weaker
   deep-layer flow amid steep 0-3 km lapse rates suggest a gradual
   eastward progression of a broken line, and and isolated severe wind
   threat, is possible as cold pools begin to consolidate.

   ..Moore.. 05/17/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36030558 36700538 37290517 37740474 38050389 38050302
               37680212 37220135 36740081 36240042 35880045 35700063
               35660115 35610179 35320236 34960288 34620362 34500448
               34750492 35350540 36030558