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Mesoscale Discussion 655
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MD 655 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0655
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0536 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

   Areas affected...TX Panhandle into Southwest TX...Far eastern NM

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...

   Valid 172236Z - 180000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells with very large hail will be the primary threat
   in the short term, but the tornado and damaging wind threat will
   likely increase some into the early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered supercells are ongoing at 2230Z from far
   east-central NM into southwest TX. With little to no MLCINH
   remaining and moderate-to-strong instability in place (MLCAPE of
   2000-3000 J/kg), continued storm development and intensification is
   expected through 00Z. Very large hail (potentially larger than
   baseballs) will the primary short-term threat, given effective shear
   of 40-50 kt and very steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on 18Z AMA
   and MAF and 20Z DRT soundings). 

   Low-level flow/shear is expected to increase somewhat into this
   evening. As this occurs, the tornado threat may increase with any
   remaining discrete supercells. The increasing low-level jet may also
   eventually support some upscale growth with time, which would lead
   to an increase in the severe wind threat. Isolated significant wind
   gusts (65+ kt) cannot be ruled out, especially across the central
   and southern portion of WW 182 where greater boundary-layer
   heating/mixing has occurred this afternoon.

   ..Dean.. 05/17/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29990251 34590351 35360162 34910073 33930069 32120074
               29969995 29800002 29470074 29580143 29940236 29990251 

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