Mesoscale Discussion 0659
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0723 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

   Areas affected...Far northeast New Mexico...southeast Colorado...the
   northern Panhandles...and southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...

   Valid 180023Z - 180230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will continue for WW
   181 for the next few hours. Storms will likely reach southwest
   Kansas by 03 UTC, and trends will be monitored for the need for a
   downstream watch.

   DISCUSSION...Prior discrete to semi-discrete convection across
   northeast NM and the northwestern TX Panhandle continues to grow
   upscale with a cohesive outflow discernible in velocity data from
   regional radars. This activity is expected to continue to propagate
   to the north/northwest into southeast CO, the northern Panhandles,
   and potentially into southwest KS by around 03 UTC. Additionally,
   new convective development is noted ahead of this line, but it is
   unclear if this convection will pose a robust severe threat before
   merging with the approaching line. The environment ahead of this
   evolving line remains supportive for organized convection in the
   near term, though the onset of diurnal cooling may limit instability
   and overall storm intensity to some degree. The greatest severe risk
   will likely remain across the Panhandles region into the overnight
   hours where more persistent discrete storm modes are expected as
   well as a strengthening low-level jet that will help maintain a
   robust hail/wind (and perhaps a brief tornado) threat. A downstream
   watch into southwest Kansas is possible if the line can maintain
   intensity despite a gradual decrease in instability and
   boundary-layer decoupling.

   To the northwest, convection along the CO front range continues
   exhibit gradual consolidation with an outflow boundary slowly
   propagating eastward. This activity will continue to pose an
   isolated severe wind risk for the next 1-2 hours before
   boundary-layer decoupling occurs.

   ..Moore.. 05/18/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36770491 37510460 38380364 38560264 38190154 37820086
               37060044 36180001 35500011 35260108 35180264 35360309
               35890335 36360415 36770491