Mesoscale Discussion 0666
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
Areas affected...Portions of North TX
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186...
Valid 180437Z - 180600Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186
SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated damaging wind will
persist through at least 06Z, and possibly beyond.
DISCUSSION...At 0430Z, an MCS is continuing to move eastward across
north TX. The southern portion of the MCS, to the southwest of the
Metroplex, has shown signs of increasing organization, with a
well-defined 50-60 kt rear-inflow jet noted between 2-5 km on the
KDYX VWP. While this would suggest an increasing damaging wind risk,
other competing factors may mitigate the threat, such as increasing
MLCINH across the region and the primary outflow tending to surge
ahead of the leading convection.
Some damaging wind risk is expected to persist until the 06Z
expiration time of WW 186, with some potential for the threat to
last beyond that time and extend east of the current watch.
Depending on convective trends over the next hour, watch
extension/expansion may be needed prior to 06Z.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 31779942 32419889 33219831 33659787 33639738 33269707
32479687 31949726 31639790 31559859 31609927 31779942