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Mesoscale Discussion 666
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0666
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of North TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186...

   Valid 180437Z - 180600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186

   SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated damaging wind will
   persist through at least 06Z, and possibly beyond.

   DISCUSSION...At 0430Z, an MCS is continuing to move eastward across
   north TX. The southern portion of the MCS, to the southwest of the
   Metroplex, has shown signs of increasing organization, with a
   well-defined 50-60 kt rear-inflow jet noted between 2-5 km on the
   KDYX VWP. While this would suggest an increasing damaging wind risk,
   other competing factors may mitigate the threat, such as increasing
   MLCINH across the region and the primary outflow tending to surge
   ahead of the leading convection. 

   Some damaging wind risk is expected to persist until the 06Z
   expiration time of WW 186, with some potential for the threat to
   last beyond that time and extend east of the current watch.
   Depending on convective trends over the next hour, watch
   extension/expansion may be needed prior to 06Z.

   ..Dean.. 05/18/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31779942 32419889 33219831 33659787 33639738 33269707
               32479687 31949726 31639790 31559859 31609927 31779942 

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