ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192306 
SPC MCD 192306 
TXZ000-200030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0689
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192306Z - 200030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a threat for large hail will persist
for the next couple of hours before diminishing later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing across far west Texas this
evening posing a risk of large hail. One such thunderstorm is
currently moving southeast into the greater Midland area and another
moving northeast into Crockett county. These thunderstorms continue
within an environment best characterized as weakly capped and
sufficiently unstable. Deep-layer shear is marginally supportive of
thunderstorm organization, with decreasing support farther east.
Absent strongly deep-layer shear, the intensity of these storms
should wane with time this evening as the boundary layer cools and
instability decreases. One potential exception to this will be when
the westward-moving outflow boundary across Crockett, Irion, and
Sterling counties interacts with the eastward moving storms
currently located from Pecos county northward into Midland county.
Should these storm-scale interactions occur, increased low-level
convergence may result in a brief increase in updraft strength and
an increased hail potential. However, the relatively localized space
and time nature of the threat should preclude the need for a watch.

..Marsh/Dial.. 05/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31970267 32330230 32240109 31480046 30600029 30180114
            30310206 31240254 31970267 

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