ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 222331 SPC MCD 222331 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-230130- Mesoscale Discussion 0706 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Areas affected...Southwestern Nebraska and far northwester Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195... Valid 222331Z - 230130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195 continues. SUMMARY...Additional storm development is possible along an outflow boundary in northwest KS/southwest Nebraska. Increase in MLCIN this evening makes that scenario uncertain. Storms are likely to move out of Colorado later this evening and post some threat for strong/damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado along the stationary boundary. DISCUSSION...Shear into southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas is generally weaker in the warm sector than areas to the west. This has led to to a relatively disorganized storm mode. Furthermore, storms that were initially intense along the stationary boundary moved north and became elevated quickly. With this activity departed, an outflow boundary is evident in surface observations and visible satellite along the western NE/KS border. This area is likely the remaining focus for any additional storm development this evening. However, with capping beginning to increase, it is not certain this will occur. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado would be possible with that activity. To the north and west, storms will not likely impact parts of the Nebraska Panhandle until 9-11 PM CDT as activity moves northeast out of Colorado. As this activity is expected to be more linear in mode, damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary threat. Given the presence of the boundary, a brief tornado could occur along and near it. ..Wendt.. 05/22/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39850215 40120227 40670242 41010280 41040321 41420346 41690267 41430169 40540050 40070022 39510043 39490157 39850215 NNNN