ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 232237 SPC MCD 232237 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-240030- Mesoscale Discussion 0714 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Areas affected...Western Nebraska...northeast Colorado...far northwest Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 196... Valid 232237Z - 240030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 196 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for tornadoes will increase into southwest Nebraska and far northwest Kansas as low-level shear increases this evening. The threat will be greatest with any remaining discrete activity moving out of Colorado. Additional storms could develop along the southern flank of the current activity and move into a similarly favorable environment for tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection within Tornado Watch 196 has trended somewhat more linear in mode. A supercell moving north through Logan County Colorado has a history of tornadoes and will move into Nebraska over the next hour or so. This storm poses the greatest tornado threat currently. Low-level shear is expected to increase ahead of this activity with an increase in the low-level jet this evening. Farther south, cumulus have continue to deepen along the surface trough. With some influence from the shortwave trough and an increase in low-level convergence this evening, additional storm development is possible. Again, these potential storms would also move into a favorable environment for supercells with an attendant risk for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. At present, storm coverage in the Nebraska Panhandle is sparse after earlier storms. Given rain-cooled air roughly west of Alliance, NE, additional severe storm development will likely occur east of that longitude. With time, activity is expected to congeal into a linear segments with strong/severe wind gusts becoming the main hazard. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41000342 41620372 42650351 42940285 42780205 41100124 40100112 39440146 38710212 38200282 38090327 38950368 40150377 41000342 NNNN