|Mesoscale Discussion 726|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0726
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021
Areas affected...west Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201...
Valid 242344Z - 250115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and downburst winds remain likely with
storms developing across west Texas through 01Z. Primary threat will
probably transition to damaging wind toward mid evening.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue developing along the
dryline across west Texas where the strongest heating, mixing and
convergence has occurred west of the Lubbock area. Farther north the
19Z RAOB from Amarillo showed a pronounced capping inversion, and
thunderstorm development has been delayed due in part to somewhat
cooler surface temperatures. VWP data indicate weak effective bulk
shear on the order of 25 kt supporting mostly multicells. However,
up to 35 kt effective bulk shear with northward extent toward the
Panhandle might support some marginal supercell structures. Visible
satellite imagery shows a westward-moving boundary from the eastern
TX Panhandle southward through northwest TX. This boundary
demarcates the westward surge of higher dewpoints. It is likely that
this feature will eventually merge with some of the outflows
produced by the storms in west TX, at which time a rapid upscale
growth into a liner MCS might occur toward mid evening. The MCS
could be sustained into a portion of the overnight by a
strengthening southerly low-level jet.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 32850281 34090240 35280238 35910203 35970140 35630111
34850096 33460107 32900133 32440194 32460250 32850281
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