|Mesoscale Discussion 728|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021
Areas affected...Southwest Kansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 200...
Valid 250107Z - 250230Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues.
SUMMARY...A narrow window for tornado potential still exists in
southwestern Kansas as the low-level jet increases. Some potential
for upscale growth exists. This activity could push eastward. Trends
will be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch later
this evening for parts of southwestern/south-central Kansas.
DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing in southwestern Kansas, the
strongest of which is located along the Kearny/Finney County line.
Given that this activity has remained discrete, the tornado
potential will continue for the next 1-2 hours. The strongest
increase in the low-level jet will not likely occur until after 10
PM CDT, which will also mean the boundary layer will be increasingly
stable at that time. Even so, there will be modest increases in
low-level hodograph size this evening. Eastward progression is not
likely to be significant initially given the capping on the 00Z DDC
sounding, though activity could potentially move into Gray County.
If activity can congeal and develop a cold pool, more eastward
propagation would be possible. This activity would see a greater
threat for damaging winds and isolated large hail. Conditions will
be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch to the east
later this evening.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38020196 38230151 38230079 37820013 37250022 37040045
37130172 37360203 38020196
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