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Mesoscale Discussion 728
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0728
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0807 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

   Areas affected...Southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 200...

   Valid 250107Z - 250230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues.

   SUMMARY...A narrow window for tornado potential still exists in
   southwestern Kansas as the low-level jet increases. Some potential
   for upscale growth exists. This activity could push eastward. Trends
   will be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch later
   this evening for parts of southwestern/south-central Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing in southwestern Kansas, the
   strongest of which is located along the Kearny/Finney County line.
   Given that this activity has remained discrete, the tornado
   potential will continue for the next 1-2 hours. The strongest
   increase in the low-level jet will not likely occur until after 10
   PM CDT, which will also mean the boundary layer will be increasingly
   stable at that time. Even so, there will be modest increases in
   low-level hodograph size this evening. Eastward progression is not
   likely to be significant initially given the capping on the 00Z DDC
   sounding, though activity could potentially move into Gray County.
   If activity can congeal and develop a cold pool, more eastward
   propagation would be possible. This activity would see a greater
   threat for damaging winds and isolated large hail. Conditions will
   be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch to the east
   later this evening.

   ..Wendt.. 05/25/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38020196 38230151 38230079 37820013 37250022 37040045
               37130172 37360203 38020196 

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