ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 261616 
SPC MCD 261616 
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-261815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0745
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Areas affected...eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania northeast to
Vermont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 261616Z - 261815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A continued/gradual increase in convective coverage and
intensity is expected across the upper Ohio Valley/central and
northern Appalachians this afternoon.  As potential for locally
stronger wind gusts increases, WW issuance will likely be required.

DISCUSSION...Scattered to broken cloud cover across much of the
Northeast is facilitating diurnal heating/gradual destabilization
across the discussion area, with pre-frontal convection now
initiating from upstate NY southwestward into western PA at this
time.  As the upper short-wave trough advances across eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes with time, large-scale ascent will support
further increases in storm coverage/intensity with time.  Aided by
moderate/roughly unidirectional west-southwesterly flow through a
deep layer, eventual upscale growth of storms into small bands, and
some cold pool development/interaction, is expected -- along with
attendant/local increases in risk for damaging winds.  Given this
potential, WW issuance will likely be required.

..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   44377228 44397360 43237663 43257723 42957842 41588122
            40098176 39808027 40057844 41107577 43077261 44377228 

NNNN