ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 261721 
SPC MCD 261721 
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-261845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0746
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Areas affected...northern VA...MD...DE and far southern NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 261721Z - 261845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible with thunderstorms
this afternoon into early evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating through early afternoon has allowed
temperatures to warm into the 80s to low 90s amid upper 60s to low
70s surface dewpoints. This is aiding in weak to moderate
destabilization with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE present across the
region. Isolated convection is developing over the higher terrain of
WV and a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to form over the next
couple of hours across northern VA/western MD. Effective shear will
remain weak over the area, with around 20-25 kt currently forecast.
Nevertheless, very steep low level lapse rates will promote strong
downdraft potential. Should cold pool development occur, there is
some potential that a better organized cluster could develop and
grow upscale as it shifts across the Chesapeake Bay toward the
DE/southern NJ coast early this evening. Convective trends will be
monitored and a watch may be needed in the next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Hart.. 05/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39697687 39677594 39677559 39497519 39257483 39027477
            38767476 38417494 38257520 38107571 37957616 38077760
            38157789 38257824 38417844 38637852 39007844 39357827
            39567803 39737752 39697687 

NNNN