ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 261745 SPC MCD 261745 NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-261945- Mesoscale Discussion 0747 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021 Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado...and into the Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 261745Z - 261945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Initial storm development is expected across portions of the central High Plains, focused on eastern WY/northeastern CO, within the next 1 to 2 hours. WW will likely be required. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a warm front -- extending from a low over central Wyoming -- draped southeastward across southeastern Wyoming and far northeastern Colorado into northwestern Kansas. As cirrus has thinned across eastern Wyoming, heating of the modestly moist boundary layer has resulted in 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE development along the boundary. As the upper circulation indicated by WV imagery near the northwestern corner of Wyoming continues eastward, increasing ascent -- focused near the surface low and associated warm front -- to permit storm development to occur. The increase in ascent is evident across the higher terrain of southeastern Wyoming within a visible satellite loop, where cumulus has begun to grow/increase. This trend should continue, and coupled with continued heating/modest destabilization with time, storm development is expected to occur. With southeasterly low-level flow in the vicinity of the front beneath mid-level west-southwesterlies that should gradually strengthen with time, shear will favor rotating storms initially. Large hail, and locally damaging winds, would be the primary severe risks. With time, linear/upscale growth is expected, as storms move into the Nebraska Panhandle late this afternoon/this evening -- suggesting increasingly widespread potential for damaging winds. ..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 43520502 42970353 42320224 41520161 40190176 39970278 39970495 41420515 42920601 43520502 NNNN