ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 281956 SPC MCD 281956 VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-282200- Mesoscale Discussion 0787 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Areas affected...eastern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281956Z - 282200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across eastern Virginia will continue to pose a threat for gusty winds and hail before crossing the Chesapeake. Additional thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon farther west posing an additional threat for wind as they move east. A watch is currently not expected, but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...A relatively strong coastal front remains draped across the Chesapeake Bay area, with easterly flow off the cooler Atlantic waters to the north and warm southerly flow to the south. To the south of this front, isolated thunderstorms developed earlier this afternoon within a zone of strong surface heating (surface temperatures greater than 90F) and modest low-level warm-air advection. The warm, moist low levels have contributed to most-unstable CAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg across a small corridor of eastern Virginia despite weak mid-level lapse rates (on the order of 5-6 C/km). Gusty thunderstorm outflow winds will remain possible with the stronger updrafts, although a brief tornado potential will exist with any thunderstorm moving across the coastal front where backed surface winds may support enhanced low-level helical flow. High-resolution convection permitting models, such as the HRRR and experimental WoFS guidance, continue to suggest additional thunderstorms may develop across central Virginia this afternoon as increased ascent from an approaching mid-level trough encounters the aforementioned unstable environment. These thunderstorms will also pose a threat for gusty thunderstorm winds as they move east, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any thunderstorm that interacts with the backed low-level flow in and near the aforementioned coastal front. At this time thunderstorm coverage is anticipated to remain sparse enough to preclude the need for a watch, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Marsh/Hart.. 05/28/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 36788051 38017989 38907887 38877755 38397632 37487584 36877611 36667693 36627876 36788051 NNNN