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Mesoscale Discussion 819
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0819
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1143 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

   Areas affected...portions of the Texas Rolling Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227...

   Valid 310443Z - 310615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 227. Large hail remains a concern, particularly with more
   discrete storms. A couple damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...An organized MCS has been developing across parts of
   the Texas Rolling Plains over the past couple of hours,
   characterized by linear mode across Hockley/Terry Counties, and
   preceded by more discrete convection from Lubbock to Scurry
   Counties. A recent uptick in storm intensity has been noted over the
   past hour, with a discrete supercell noted over Garza County. MRMS
   mosaic MESH radar data suggests over 2 inch diameter stones may be
   occurring with this storm. Though boundary-layer stabilization or
   convective overturning has reduced instability across much of
   western Texas, 00Z AMA and MAF soundings showed up 8 C/km 700-500 mb
   lapse rates present, supporting up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE as shown by
   04Z mesoanalysis. As such, a severe hail threat may continue with
   the more robust, discrete storms over the next couple of hours.
   Otherwise, a damaging gust or two may occur with the more linear

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/31/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33060292 33690302 34070293 34310230 34440121 34280043
               34030013 33580003 33160015 32920060 32870185 33060292 

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