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Mesoscale Discussion 820 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0820
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021
Areas affected...Portions of west into west-central TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 310712Z - 310945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Sporadic hail and strong/gusty winds will remain possible
through the early morning hours with a cluster of storms. Watch
issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms is ongoing as of 0710Z across
part of west TX. Recent area VWPs show 0-2 km south-southeasterly
winds around 30-40 kt transporting a low-level moisture fetch into
this convection. Even with this low-level moisture, the mid-level
lapse rates are not very steep across this region, which along with
relatively cool surface temperatures is limiting instability. Even
so, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present downstream into parts
of west-central TX. Modestly enhanced mid-level winds preceding an
upper trough over the Southwest are supporting deep-layer shear of
40-50 kt per latest mesoanalysis estimates, and occasional embedded
supercell structures have been noted within the line over the past
hour or so. Isolated instances of marginally severe hail appear
possible with any supercell that can be sustained. Otherwise,
sporadic strong/gusty may occur with convective downdrafts. The weak
instability should preclude a greater severe threat, and watch
issuance is not expected.
..Gleason/Grams.. 05/31/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32520220 33080116 33400066 33359943 32609960 32230025
32070075 32060220 32520220
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