ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 071436 SPC MCD 071436 TXZ000-071700- Mesoscale Discussion 0867 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0936 AM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021 Areas affected...east-central and east TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071436Z - 071700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The risk for severe gusts and wind damage will probably focus near and south of I-20 through mid afternoon as an MCS moves east-southeast towards the Sabine River. The expected rejuvenation of storm intensity with an associated severe threat will seemingly coincide with surface temperatures warming into the low-mid 80s deg F (around midday). DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic this morning shows an MCS with an associated MCV over north-central TX moving east-southeast across the I-35 corridor. Surface temperatures to the east of the thunderstorm complex as of 930am, have warmed into the upper 70s to near 80 deg F with mid 70s dewpoints. Model guidance shows the gradual weakening of a LLJ this morning (currently 30-35 kt over east-central TX) but 25-kt southerly 850 mb flow is forecast to remain over east TX through the early afternoon---maintaining a moist conveyer. The 7am Shreveport and Lake Charles, LA raobs showed a very moist boundary layer with 16-18 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratios and 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Additional heating during the morning into the early afternoon will result in a very unstable airmass across east TX on the southern periphery of the mid-level low over the Ozark Plateau. Current thinking is a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by the midday hours but timing of issuance will coincide with radar trends. Forecast soundings suggest thunderstorm intensification in terms of a wind damage threat will probably coincide with surface temperatures warming into the mid 80s. This warming would equate to the need for a watch in the 11am-1pm timeframe. A risk for wind damage may also accompany storm activity on the northern periphery of the MCS on if storms develop a warm advection wing and surging portion of the line subsequently move east along the differential heating boundary/effective warm front. ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/07/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32599690 32539429 31989408 31409422 30919470 31269775 31819778 32599690 NNNN