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Mesoscale Discussion 919
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0919
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0437 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

   Areas affected...eastern North Dakota/South Dakota and western
   Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255...256...

   Valid 110937Z - 111100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255, 256
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts will
   continue the next couple of hours across the eastern Dakotas into
   portions of western Minnesota.

   DISCUSSION...A severe QLCS will continue to track eastward across
   the eastern Dakotas at around 40-50 kt early this morning. Several
   severe wind gusts around 60-80 mph have been measured over the past
   hour or so with this line. Recent VWP data from ABR, where the line
   recently passed, indicated a rear inflow jet around 60-70 kt around
   2 km. While the QLCS is currently exiting the axis of greatest
   instability, this strong rear inflow jet, and a southerly low level
   jet around 30-40 kts ahead of the line will help to maintain strong
   to severe storms for another couple hours as convection approaches
   western MN. The current expectation is that convection should
   gradually diminish in intensity with eastward extent as instability
   and shear weak across western MN. While new downstream severe
   thunderstorm watches are not anticipated at this time, local watch
   extensions may be needed for parts of the Grand Forks and/or
   Aberdeen CWAs depending on convective trends over the next hour or
   so.

   ..Leitman.. 06/11/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   49079697 48079591 46469578 44049639 43029745 42969828
               43289877 43979887 46259841 47959887 48759928 49109909
               49079697 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2021
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