ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 130223 
SPC MCD 130223 
OKZ000-TXZ000-130330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0940
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Areas affected...Western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandle Region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 130223Z - 130330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted for western
portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle region. Damaging winds
and large hail are the primary risks.

DISCUSSION...Convection that developed off the higher terrain from
southeast CO into central NM has finally developed enough mass/cold
pool to begin propagating southeast away from the initiating
region/steeper low-level lapse rates. 00z sounding from AMA
exhibited a weak cap near 700mb, but with a 70F surface dew point
MLCAPE was ~3700 J/kg. There is some concern this activity may
spread east of ww262 as east-southeast boundary-layer inflow is
quite moist and potentially buoyant. Severe thunderstorm watch may
be warranted soon to account for this threat.

..Darrow/Dial.. 06/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34040294 36870265 36340139 34160155 34040294 

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