|Mesoscale Discussion 963|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021
Areas affected...Western Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 268...
Valid 140239Z - 140445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will continue across
portions of western Nebraska for the next 1-2 hours, but the
duration of the threat after 04 UTC is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms ongoing across western and northwestern
NE continue to produce instances of measured severe wind gusts as
well as hail up to 1.5 inches. The convection that developed within
the warm frontal zone near the NE/SD border has been slow to grow
upscale with only recent cold pool organization noted in KLNX
velocity data. This activity will continue to migrate to the
southeast and interact with a broken line of storms moving eastward
out of the NE Panhandle. This interaction should maximize
convergence to the west/northwest of the KLNX area and provide
sufficient lift for continued development (and a continued severe
threat) in the near term given nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in place.
The severe potential becomes less certain by (and after) 04 UTC as
the storms move towards the KLNX area. The 00Z North Platte sounding
revealed around -130 J/kg MLCIN, and decreasing low-level moisture
to the east of KLNX suggests capping may be stronger with eastward
extent. Storms will likely struggle to maintain intensity in this
environment in the absence of more organized mesocyclones (which is
unlikely given the limited deep-layer shear). Recent hi-res guidance
supports this idea, suggesting that the severe threat should
diminish after 04 UTC.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 41620295 42420291 42810230 42900192 42990146 42920100
42570046 41950087 41510113 41200147 41260188 41410284
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