Mesoscale Discussion 0982
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0734 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

   Areas affected...Southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 160034Z - 160230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A single supercell may pose a very isolated severe
   wind/hail risk to south-central Nebraska over the next 1-2 hours.
   The coverage of the threat should be minimal, and the duration may
   not extend beyond a couple of hours. A watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A single thunderstorm has developed across
   south-central NE over the past hour. While this region has moderate
   mixed-layer instability and nearly 40 knots of effective bulk shear,
   a strong cap largely remains in place. A pocket of higher theta-e
   air across south-central NE lies within a weak confluence axis,
   which has led to a local weakening of the cap that has allowed the
   thunderstorm to develop. Recent GOES trends show some degree of
   cloud-top cooling with splitting supercell structures noted in KUEX
   imagery. This suggests that the supercell is robust enough to
   persist for at least one to two hours despite the weak forcing for
   ascent. Additional convection along the confluence axis in the high
   theta-e pocket is possible (as indicated by a couple of weak
   convective towers), but is not likely. Severe hail/wind are possible
   with this storm, but the duration is uncertain after 02 UTC given
   the onset of diurnal cooling.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...

   LAT...LON   40809920 40989895 40959857 40779835 40509821 40189813
               39889811 39579807 39479835 39489872 39519908 39699941
               40169940 40529932 40809920