ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 200014 
SPC MCD 200014 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-200145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1022
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Areas affected...southern Michigan...northeast Indiana...and
northwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 200014Z - 200145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Recent vigorous storm development along the eastern shore
of Lake Michigan may pose a risk for mainly damaging wind gusts or
severe hail this evening. Storms may continue into the first part of
the overnight across Ohio and Indiana. A weather watch is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...As of 2350 UTC, KIWX radar data showed several
strong/severe storms developing along a modified lake
breeze/stationary front across southern Michigan and northern
Indiana. Visible data shows several areas of agitated cumulus along
the front and ahead of the ongoing storms suggesting additional
development is likely. SPC mesoanalysis indicates these storms are
moving into an environment supportive of severe weather potential
with moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient
deep-layer shear (30-40 kts) for organized updrafts. Straight but
elongated hodographs and shear vectors largely parallel to the
stationary front will favor more linear/cluster modes as increasing
storm coverage/interactions develop. Damaging winds appear to be the
greatest threat though the degree of buoyancy and some potential for
initial supercell structures may also support a threat for large
hail. Low confidence in convective evolution exists currently.
However, if a deeper cold pool can develop concurrent with an
increase in the low-level jet, damaging wind potential may increase
downstream across portions of northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio
later tonight. Convective trends will be monitored for a possible
weather watch.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/20/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   42378615 42358513 42238456 41758419 41388411 40838404
            40388412 40018445 39758521 39848586 40318666 40698692
            40968705 41198725 41458739 41748729 41948686 42158649
            42378615 

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