ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 202326 
SPC MCD 202326 
COZ000-210030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Areas affected...southeastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 202326Z - 210030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated convection is forecast to increase across the
Front Range this afternoon/evening. A few strong/severe storms may
evolve with a risk for damaging winds or hail through this evening.
Coverage should remain sparse limiting the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar data from KPUX and KFTG showed several
clusters of weak updrafts have become gradually deeper over the last
half hour. New storm development over El Paso County Colorado could
be an early signal for similar storm initiation along the Front
Range late this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicates 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE has developed in response to weak upslope flow and
dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F. Deep-layer shear is
adequate for updraft organization in the form of multi-cell clusters
and perhaps a weak supercell. Model soundings do suggest the ongoing
convection may be rooted above the surface, which casts doubt on
severe potential early. However, if storms are able to survive,
damaging winds and hail may develop given the degree of buoyancy and
organization potential. The severe weather threat remains
conditional and somewhat uncertain, but some potential does exist. A
watch is unlikely for now given the uncertainty and expected limited
storm coverage.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/20/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37220429 37440437 38200472 38730472 39110446 39120377
            38670277 38160244 37590220 37160226 37080240 37060348
            37060395 37220429 

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