Mesoscale Discussion 1061
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1158 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

   Areas affected...Northern FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221658Z - 221900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts are possible with the strongest
   storms this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis shows a convectively enhanced
   outflow boundary moving across northern FL. This boundary is well
   ahead of the cold front, which is currently moving through central
   GA. Given the buoyancy downstream, expectation is for the ongoing
   activity to continue. Thus far, updrafts have been relatively
   short-lived, likely as a result of poor vertical shear and
   progressive nature of the outflow boundary undercutting ongoing
   storms. 

   Surface analysis and visible satellite imagery also show the west
   coast sea-breeze, which is delineated fairly well by the 88 deg F
   isotherm. Storms have begun developing along the sea-breeze. Weakly
   sheared environment suggests a short life cycle with most updrafts.
   Even so, ample moisture exists for water loading, and a few stronger
   downdrafts are possible. Additionally, storms along the
   southward-moving outflow could merge with those developing along the
   sea breeze, augmented updrafts/downdrafts. Limited
   severe coverage is currently anticipated, but overall convective
   trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 06/22/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29618302 30218224 30338150 30058126 29598113 28898125
               28368179 28148269 28818258 29258285 29618302