ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 232051 
SPC MCD 232051 
NEZ000-COZ000-232245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1067
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

Areas affected...Portions of the Nebraska Panhandle and
north-central Nebraska.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 232051Z - 232245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing storm coverage and intensity expected into the
evening.

DISCUSSION...A few towers have started to develop in the well-mixed
air in the Nebraska Panhandle where temperatures are over 100
degrees and inhibition is eroded according to SPC mesoanalysis.
MLCAPE is only around 500 J/kg in this region and thus, storms are
expected to strengthen gradually. However, as this activity moves
eastward and as the upper trough advances east toward the better
instability, storm intensity/coverage is expected to increase. In
addition, shear is relatively weak where early development has
begun, but it is stronger across central and eastern Nebraska. This
should also aid in storm intensity/organization as activity moves
east. Additionally, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen
substantially during the evening hours which should provide
additional forcing for storm development. 

At some point during this evening, a severe thunderstorm watch will
likely be needed, especially as storms organize into
supercells/bowing segments. However, the timing of this transition
remains unclear and thus storm trends will be monitored over the
next few hours.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/23/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42280331 42910169 42949956 42369904 41529924 41060000
            41040120 40990238 41050333 41480389 42280331 

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