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Mesoscale Discussion 1068
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1068
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0516 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

   Areas affected...Northeast North Dakota into Northwest Minnesota.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232216Z - 232345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the cold front may pose a
   risk for isolated damaging winds early this evening. A greater
   threat may evolve with additional storm development near sunset. A
   watch is possible, but uncertainty remains high on the magnitude of
   the severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite and radar imagery showed
   thunderstorm development was increasing in vigor across portions of
   North Dakota and Minnesota. These storms have developed along and
   ahead of a cold front analyzed from southern Manitoba, through
   northeast North Dakota, and northwest Minnesota. Weak buoyancy has
   developed along the front with around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE observed
   from SPC mesoanalysis. 35-45 kts of 0-6km shear, sampled from
   regional VWPs, will support an organized severe risk in the form of
   supercells and short line segments. As the front surges southward,
   thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts given steep
   low-level lapse rates.

   To the east across north-central Minnesota, a more stable airmass is
   in place where deeper mixing has lowered surface dewpoints into the
   upper 40s and low 50s F. Uncertainty on the magnitude of the severe
   threat remains high as storms will likely weaken as they encounter
   lower buoyancy in this region. Some destabilization is possible
   later this evening as deeper surface moisture with dewpoints in the
   low 60s F is advected into the area ahead of the low-level jet. With
   the resurgence of low-level moisture, some CAM guidance suggests
   additional storms may form and grow upscale with the potential for
   damaging wind gusts into the overnight hours. With this uncertainty
   in mind, convective trends are being monitored for a possible
   weather watch.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 06/23/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   49029510 48619469 48159436 47799436 47249483 46879574
               46769665 47059709 47249754 47619803 48569728 48979664
               49059643 49029510 

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