ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 242319 
SPC MCD 242319 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-250015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Areas affected...Northern missouri and southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 242319Z - 250015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms will be likely this evening ahead of a
frontal boundary across northern Missouri and southern Iowa. The
main threats are expected to be damaging winds and large hail,
though a tornado or two will be possible. A new weather watch is
likely needed.

DISCUSSION...2300z visible satellite imagery showed several new
thunderstorms developing along and north of a frontal zone from
northern Missouri through southern Iowa. These storms are ongoing in
an environment characterized by 2000-3500 J/kg of MCLAPE and 30 to
40 kts of effective shear. To the north of the front, low-level
shear is substantially weaker as sampled by the DMX VWP suggesting
more of a wind and hail threat for eastward extent. Some initial
tornado threat may also exists across portions of northwestern
Missouri with supercells upstream over eastern Kansas. Additional
storm development along the front will likely result in upscale
growth with a greater threat of wind and hail this evening. A new
watch will be needed shortly.

..Lyons/Grams.. 06/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   39059495 39759525 40429532 40849495 41089368 41079273
            40669218 40059254 39489340 39089409 38949475 39059495 

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