ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 292317 
SPC MCD 292317 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-300045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Areas affected...Eastern New York into portions of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 292317Z - 300045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms will pose a risk for a few
damaging wind gusts into this evening. Weak shear and limited storm
organization suggests the severe threat will remain marginal.

DISCUSSION...2300z observations showed isolated thunderstorms
ongoing along and south of a diffuse frontal zone from eastern New
York through portions of New England. In the past half hour, a few
of these storms have produced occasional tree damage suggesting a
low-end severe threat may continue for a few more hours. From SPC
mesoanalysis, moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is in
place, with weak vertical shear less than 25 kts. The
instability/shear overlap will favor a multicellular storm mode with
the potential for a few marginally severe gusts through this evening
as storms continue east. As sunset approaches and nocturnal
inhibition begins to increase, storm coverage and the resulting
severe threat should dwindle. Given convective trends and coverage,
a weather watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   43367445 43657328 43577212 42487068 41767119 41447249
            42117458 43007463 43367445 

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