ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 071902 
SPC MCD 071902 
INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-072030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

Areas affected...Northern IL...far southern WI...northwest
IN...southeast IA...northwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071902Z - 072030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms will
remain possible this afternoon, with damaging winds the primary
hazard.  A watch is not anticipated considering the expected
isolated nature of the risk, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along a cold front
extending from near the IL/WI border southwest across northwest MO
as of 1845z, with additional development also noted along a lake
breeze boundary near the southern tip of Lake Michigan.  A small
cluster/line segment near the IL/WI border was moving along the
front and has previously exhibited low-level rotation.  MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg is in place, along with effective shear less than 25
kts (locally near 35 kts along the IL/WI border).  Modest frontal
forcing, resulting from veered flow in advance of the front, should
tend to limit overall coverage of the severe risk, with the
strongest cells capable of damaging gusts.  In the short term,
storms moving along the front over far northern IL may continue to
exhibit occasional rotation while moving east towards the lake
shore. 

A watch is not currently expected, but observational trends will
continue to be monitored.

..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40829193 42478923 42928895 42528789 42048760 42218651
            42048628 41498621 40988648 40518682 40308937 40079163
            40469196 40829193 

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