ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090154 
SPC MCD 090154 
SDZ000-090400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Areas affected...Central and Southeast South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354...

Valid 090154Z - 090400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across central and
southeastern South Dakota over the next few hours. Large hail and
wind damage will be possible with the stronger cells. The area
affected will be to the east of WW 354, where a new watch will
likely be needed later this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest high resolution radar from Bismark, North
Dakota shows a small cluster of severe thunderstorms centered about
100 statute miles to the west of Mobridge, South Dakota. These
storms are expected to move along the far eastern edge of WW 354.
Additional thunderstorms will develop to the east of WW 354 in parts
of central South Dakota over the next hour. According to the RAP,
the environment is characterized to have moderate instability and
strong deep-layer shear. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be as strong
as 60 kt in some areas. In addition, a band of large-scale ascent
will approach from the west, which combined with increasing lift
associated with a strengthening low-level jet, will result in
scattered thunderstorm development across central and southeastern
South Dakota later this evening. The stronger cells will likely have
a threat for large hail and wind damage. Although the convective
cluster will become elevated, it may affect areas to the east of the
Missouri River, where a new weather watch will likely be needed.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 07/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   44869775 43839768 43289859 44340107 44790181 45350184
            45790158 45850011 44869775 

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