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Mesoscale Discussion 1211
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1211
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

   Areas affected...eastern Virginia into eastern Maryland and Delaware

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091815Z - 092015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to form over the next few
   hours with locally damaging wind gusts and small hail possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface convergence continues to increase in relation
   to a developing low pressure trough, with westerly winds across
   western VA and NC. GPS PWAT sensors indicate a relative maximum
   around 1.80" over eastern VA, with continued heating further
   destabilizing the air mass. Shear is weak, but the favorable time of
   day and steepening low-level lapse rates should foster strong
   outflow, with a few severe gusts possible. The increasing westerly
   flow should push the better moisture eastward with time,

   ..Jewell/Bunting.. 07/09/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36317743 36157819 36197893 36697877 37317812 37947768
               38967718 39607682 39737631 39767582 39707554 39357525
               38917526 38687533 38417548 37837570 37297592 36767654

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