|Mesoscale Discussion 1213|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021
Areas affected...Southeastern Wyoming...Northeastern
Colorado...Western Nebraska...and Far Northwestern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 091938Z - 092115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are initiating over the high terrain of
southeastern Wyoming. The storms are expected to intensify as they
move eastward into a more favorable environment. A severe
thunderstorm watch is likely in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Enhanced midlevel westerly flow, associated with a
shortwave trough approaching from the west, is overspreading the
area and aiding in thunderstorm initiation over southeastern
Wyoming. This enhanced midlevel westerly flow, when coupled with
weak easterly upslope low-level flow over the central High Plains,
is resulting in effective bulk shear values around 50 knots across
much of the area. As the storms move eastward off the higher terrain
and encounter a more favorable thermodynamic environment over the
plains (MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg in the Nebraska Panhandle per SPC
mesoanalysis), they are expected to intensify posing a threat for
large hail initially (with mid-level lapse rates over 8 C/km).
Eventually, the storms are expected to grow upscale this evening
transitioning to a damaging-wind threat, especially as the
south-southwesterly low-level jet increases after dark.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39930487 40730543 41290549 41950539 42340499 42670407
42680338 42650252 42590188 42530127 42360086 41410045
40180041 39280145 39390314 39930487
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