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Mesoscale Discussion 1213
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1213
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0238 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

   Areas affected...Southeastern Wyoming...Northeastern
   Colorado...Western Nebraska...and Far Northwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 091938Z - 092115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are initiating over the high terrain of
   southeastern Wyoming. The storms are expected to intensify as they
   move eastward into a more favorable environment.  A severe
   thunderstorm watch is likely in the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Enhanced midlevel westerly flow, associated with a
   shortwave trough approaching from the west, is overspreading the
   area and aiding in thunderstorm initiation over southeastern
   Wyoming.  This enhanced midlevel westerly flow, when coupled with
   weak easterly upslope low-level flow over the central High Plains,
   is resulting in effective bulk shear values around 50 knots across
   much of the area. As the storms move eastward off the higher terrain
   and encounter a more favorable thermodynamic environment over the
   plains (MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg in the Nebraska Panhandle per SPC
   mesoanalysis), they are expected to intensify posing a threat for
   large hail initially (with mid-level lapse rates over 8 C/km). 
   Eventually, the storms are expected to grow upscale this evening
   transitioning to a damaging-wind threat, especially as the
   south-southwesterly low-level jet increases after dark.

   ..Jirak/Bunting.. 07/09/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39930487 40730543 41290549 41950539 42340499 42670407
               42680338 42650252 42590188 42530127 42360086 41410045
               40180041 39280145 39390314 39930487 

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