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Mesoscale Discussion 1214
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1214
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

   Areas affected...southeast Montana into northeast Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092020Z - 092145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are likely to develop southeastward into northeast
   Wyoming this evening, with areas of strong wind gusts or marginal
   hail.

   DISCUSSION...A few storms have formed northwest of Billings MT over
   the higher terrain, and on the north side of a cyclonic speed max
   aloft with cooler 500 mb temperatures. Meanwhile farther south,
   increasing CU is noted over the Big Horns, with strong heating
   occurring area-wide.

   Surface analysis shows a trough over eastern WY, which is also
   coincident with the theta-e axis. Though low-level winds are weak,
   steepening deep-layer lapse rates and sufficient moisture should
   sustain cells across southeast MT, with new development expected
   around 21-22Z across northeastern WY.

   The combination of very steep lapse rates and long hodographs will
   support cells capable of marginal hail, and perhaps severe hail
   later tonight into eastern WY where moisture is more abundant. With
   time, locally severe gusts may occur as outflow become more
   prominent.

   ..Jewell/Bunting.. 07/09/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   43730409 43490470 43480615 43840681 44500768 44940872
               45441026 45821067 46251050 46450942 46020754 45420610
               44880481 44650427 44090395 43730409 

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