|Mesoscale Discussion 1220|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021
Areas affected...Central/eastern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...
Valid 100121Z - 100315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356
SUMMARY...As activity in WW 356 increase, storms will continue to
move east into a strongly unstable airmass. A new downstream WW is
likely by 02Z for parts of eastern Nebraska.
DISCUSSION...Convection has increased along the cold front in
central Nebraska with a small line segment also developing farther
east of earlier supercells in western Nebraska. As this activity
continues to the east, driven by lift associated with the low-level
jet as well as an approaching shortwave, storms will encounter a
strongly unstable environment sampled by the 00Z OAX sounding.
Effective bulk shear of 50-55 kts will favor storm organization,
though the mode is likely to be predominantly linear. As such,
severe wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat, though
mid-level lapse rates would favor large hail in any more discrete
Activity in southern South Dakota has also increased over the last
hour. These storms are forming in an environment that has remained
cooler. These multicell storms may produce large hail, but will
similarly congeal as they move toward the southeast where better
A new WW downstream is likely by 02Z.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 42250183 42640119 43010081 43180021 43219914 42889762
42159642 41129652 40419691 40199738 40439892 40940013
41130114 41530219 42010243 42250183
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