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Mesoscale Discussion 1221
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1221
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0849 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

   Areas affected...East-central Colorado...west-central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...

   Valid 100149Z - 100315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms in east-central Colorado will move
   into a more favorable environment for severe wind gusts and isolated
   large hail. As this threat may persist beyond 10 PM CDT, a new WW
   may be needed for parts of far eastern Colorado into western Kansas.
   Trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently developed
   in east-central Colorado. As they move southeastward, they will
   encounter low 60s F dewpoints with MLCAPE nearing 1500-2000 J/kg.
   Given the dewpoint spreads at the surface, storms are likely to be
   outflow dominant and primary pose a severe wind gust risk. However,
   regional RAOBs this evening did sample very steep mid-level lapse
   rates and long hodographs (40-50 kts of effective shear) will
   promote at least an isolated large hail threat as well. The main
   question will be how far south and east this activity will go as
   MLCIN will become more pronounced. The longevity of these storms
   will hinge on the degree of cold pool organization that can occur in
   the next hour or so. That being said, some severe risk may extend
   beyond 10 PM CDT for areas still in or just south of WW 356. A new
   watch may need to be considered should convective trends warrant.

   ..Wendt.. 07/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39400364 39810377 40060336 39770251 39190068 38770003
               38260031 37960099 37880160 37870198 38290242 39400364 

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