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Mesoscale Discussion 1223
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1223
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1020 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

   Areas affected...southeast NE

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363...

   Valid 100320Z - 100515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Significant severe gusts are becoming more likely as a
   squall line organizes and quickly moves into southeast NE through
   midnight.  Widespread severe gusts are probable (60-70 mph) and
   localized gusts 75-85 mph are possible in east-southeast oriented
   swaths.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an intensifying squall line over
   east-central NE moving southeast at 40-45 kt.  Surface analysis
   shows backed low-level surface winds to the east of the squall line
   over eastern NE within a baroclinic zone.  Surface temperatures have
   only slowly cooled into the low-mid 80s near I-80 with surface
   dewpoints in the mid 70s.  As a result, it seems plausible upwards
   of 17-18 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean ratios are present ahead of the
   squall line.  As the squall line continues to mature over the next
   hour, this moisture-rich airmass will enhance the potential for
   large, water-loaded storms.  The early signs of this occurring are
   indicated by echo tops exceeding 60 kft in Buffalo County in recent
   radar data.  The favorable wind profile (40-50 kt effective shear)
   and large buoyancy will strongly favor a severe MCS across southeast
   NE during the next 1-3 hours as a terminus of a strengthening LLJ
   focuses over the area.  Significant severe gusts (75-85 mph) are
   possible in localized swaths within broader severe gusts with the
   squall line.

   ..Smith.. 07/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40569842 41129790 41319733 40869611 40229607 39969676
               40569842 

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