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Mesoscale Discussion 1231
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1231
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

   Areas affected...portions of western and central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

   Valid 100637Z - 100730Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361

   SUMMARY...Convection has gradually diminished overall, over the past
   hour, though local risk for damaging winds may continue for another
   hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-defined mesolow,
   crossing western Nebraska and associated with a bowing arc of storms
   along with a well-defined comma head.  Overall however, convection
   has gradually decreased in intensity -- in part due to thermodynamic
   deficiencies arising from the effects of prior convection now moving
   across southeastern Nebraska.

   While locally damaging winds remain possible, given the
   well-organized nature of the mesoscale circulation and attendant
   band of storms, the overall convective trend should remain downward.
    One exception may be on the very southern fringe of the convection
   -- over southwestern Nebraska and into portions of northwestern and
   north-central Kansas -- where a more favorable thermodynamic
   environment is indicated, coincident with warm-advection-induced
   ascent associated with a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet across
   western Kansas.  Any storms persisting across this portion of the
   area would largely/eventually shift into WW 360.  Otherwise, given
   current trends, the current, scheduled 08Z expiration of the watch
   appears reasonable, with respect to the gradually diminishing risk.

   ..Goss.. 07/10/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41920087 41669932 41369917 40899952 40590048 40790111
               41160122 41920087 

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