ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111805 
SPC MCD 111805 
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-111900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

Areas affected...Far Southeastern Ohio...Western
Pennsylvania...Northern West Virginia...and Western Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 111805Z - 111900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon across the area posing a threat for
damaging winds and a brief tornado or two. A watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating has occurred across the area this
morning/early afternoon ahead of minor perturbations moving across
Ohio in southwesterly flow aloft.  Consequently, modest
destabilization is occurring in the presence of upper 60s F
dewpoints, resulting in around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE per the latest
mesoanalysis.  The VAD profile at PBZ indicates that midlevel flow
is around 40 knots, which should support at least brief updraft
organization/rotation.  

Thunderstorms associated with midlvel perturbations are beginning to
intensify across southern Ohio and should continue to organize they
move into a more favorable environment to the northeast.  In
addition, more isolated/discrete storms may also form out ahead in
the warm sector, as the warm front continues to retreat northward. 
These storms will primarily pose a threat of damaging winds, but the
low-level shear is also sufficient to support the potential for a
brief tornado or two.

..Jirak/Guyer.. 07/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   39268109 39798094 40278077 40738057 40968015 41217947
            41217847 41117781 40777745 40507741 39977764 39547801
            39277843 38937932 38958077 39268109 

NNNN