Mesoscale Discussion 1296
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0401 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

   Areas affected...South-central KS...north-central OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152101Z - 152300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase by early evening. A few
   organized storms are possible, posing a threat of damaging wind and
   perhaps a brief tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Clearing in the wake of an MCV moving across
   south-central KS has resulted in moderate destabilization, with
   MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and minimal MLCINH noted in areas where
   some heating has occurred, per recent mesoanalyses. Modest but
   veering flow aloft is supporting effective shear of 25-35 kt, with
   the higher shear values noted where surface winds remain relatively
   backed, as noted in recent VWP data from KICT. 

   Guidance suggests storms will develop by late afternoon/early
   evening across south-central KS into northwest/north-central OK,
   which is supported by increasing cumulus noted in recent VIS
   imagery. Effective shear will support organized convection as storms
   mature, and a supercell or two cannot be ruled out if any storms can
   be sustained into the favorable wind profile that will reside to the
   east of the most likely initiation zone. Locally damaging wind will
   be possible with any stronger storm across this region, and any
   supercell may pose a conditional risk of a brief tornado. 

   Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, given uncertainties
   regarding storm coverage in the short term and evolution of the
   mesoscale details, but trends will continue to be monitored for the
   potential of isolated supercell development.

   ..Dean/Bunting.. 07/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37039679 36759710 36549868 36899898 37369888 37769841
               38049761 38019691 37709663 37289660 37039679