Mesoscale Discussion 1321
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0612 PM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021

   Areas affected...New York and New England

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384...

   Valid 202312Z - 210115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The wind-damage threat inside WW 384 is expected to
   continue for several more hours this evening. As the convection
   moves to the eastern edge of WW 384, a new watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Albany, New York shows
   two small clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms. The first is
   located to the east of Lake Ontario with the second in northern New
   York near the Vermont state line. These convective clusters are
   located in a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. This
   is contributing to moderate instability with the RAP estimating
   MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, moderate
   deep-layer shear is present with 0-6 km shear near 35 kt on the
   Albany WSR-88D VWP. Th instability, shear combined with steep
   low-level lapse rates will support isolated wind damage with the
   stronger multicells. The easternmost cluster of strong storms will
   likely move into New Hampshire and southern Maine over the next
   couple of hours, where instability is weaker but still could support
   strong to severe gusts.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/20/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44767209 44507120 43807103 42977126 42377200 42297385
               42347585 42807675 43257670 43787570 44727371 44767209