ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 010410 
SPC MCD 010410 
TNZ000-010615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Areas affected...Western/middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 010410Z - 010615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds will likely accompany a bow as it tracks
southeast over the next 1-2 hours. Severe thunderstorm watch is
being considered.

DISCUSSION...Well-organized bow has developed over western TN late
this evening. This convection is now surging southeast at 45-50kt
and is likely producing severe/damaging winds as it moves across
Henderson into Decatur County. Downstream convection is sagging
south ahead of this convection so it should be nudged toward Lewis
County along the southwestern flank of the middle TN storms. There
some concern an adequate cold pool has now formed such that this
activity could spread toward the AL border over the next few hours.

..Darrow/Goss.. 08/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   35928853 35718722 35318727 35558853 35928853 

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