ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 071603 SPC MCD 071603 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-071830- Mesoscale Discussion 1430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Areas affected...Portions of southeastern MN...northeastern IA...and western WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071603Z - 071830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes may increase through the early afternoon. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite and radar imagery clearly shows a MCV moving quickly eastward across MN and towards west-central WI late this morning. On the southern flank of this feature, a 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet has encouraged a recent uptick in convection across southeastern MN and northeastern IA. It appears that this activity is mainly elevated at the moment, with a weak front/outflow boundary located over southern MN. Still, with around 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear present, any elevated supercells may pose an isolated threat for primarily large hail in the short term. Storms may eventually transition to surface-based over the next few hours, particularly along and south of the convectively reinforced boundary over southern MN. A rich low-level airmass characterized by at least low 70s surface dewpoints is present across much of IA into southern MN. Both diurnal heating of this airmass and the presence of steep mid-level lapse will likely contribute to around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE this afternoon. In addition to the large hail threat with any supercells, damaging winds may also occur if storms can congeal into one or more clusters and then move east-southeastward along the surface boundary into western WI. 25-35 kt of southwesterly winds in the boundary layer and a veering wind profile with height should support 100-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, sufficient for updraft rotation and a threat for a few tornadoes. This tornado threat will probably be maximized near the surface boundary across parts of southern MN into far northeastern IA and southwestern WI. Convective trends will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance in the next few hours. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/07/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 43548995 42998986 42689018 42539067 42409221 42669321 42949368 43929391 44389282 44439206 44209109 43548995 NNNN