ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 081757 
SPC MCD 081757 
WIZ000-IAZ000-081930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Sun Aug 08 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southern and central Wisconsin.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 081757Z - 081930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather potential is expected to increase
through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An MCV can be seen on visible satellite and
intermittently in surface wind observations in far southeast
Minnesota at 18Z. This feature is will continue to lift northeast
through the day. Extending east from this MCV is a warm front from
near the MN/IA/WI border to just south of Green Bay. This warm front
is expected to lift north through the afternoon with the MCV. SPC
mesoanalysis suggests areas across southern Wisconsin have
destabilized (~1500 J/kg MLCAPE) with surface based inhibition
mostly eroded. Consequently, visible satellite now shows surface
based cumulus development east of the MCV from western Wisconsin
into eastern Iowa and western Illinois. Therefore, anticipate storm
development within the next 1 to 2 hours across portions of
southwest Wisconsin. Area VWPs have sampled around 50 knots of flow
around 6 km which should provide ample shear for some storm
organization including some embedded supercell structures. The
primary hazards are expected to be damaging winds and severe hail,
but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out in close proximity to the
warm front where low-level vorticity should be enhanced. A watch is
possible within the next 1 to 2 hours once increasing storm
coverage/intensity appears imminent.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   43998759 43268771 43288955 43179067 43129118 43649122
            44009112 44998998 44758726 43998759 

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