ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 082247 
SPC MCD 082247 
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-090015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Sun Aug 08 2021

Areas affected...Parts of central and southern
Ilinois...southeastern Missouri and portions of adjacent western
Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...

Valid 082247Z - 090015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415
continues.

SUMMARY...A line of strong thunderstorms may continue to pose at
least some risk for localized strong to severe wind gusts as it
progresses across much of the remainder of central and southern
Illinois, and adjacent portions of southeastern Missouri and western
Kentucky, through 7-9 PM CDT.  A new severe weather watch is not
anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing line of storms is maintaining at least modest
intensity, as it generally advects east-northeastward within 20-30
kt deep-layer southwesterly mean ambient flow, ahead of a mid-level
short wave trough progressing into the middle Mississippi Valley. 
There remains a corridor of seasonably moist and modestly heated
boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg
ahead of activity.  However, vertical shear is weak enough to allow
convective outflow to begin advancing ahead of the more intense
leading line of convection, particularly areas from near Perryville,
MO northward.  Substantive further intensification of storms does
not appear likely, but activity might still remain capable of
generating locally strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts into the
00-02Z time frame, before diminishing.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   36799037 37628972 38478950 39148954 40158945 40278898
            40408846 40658788 39858785 38628806 37388857 36588935
            36369003 36799037 

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