ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101830 
SPC MCD 101830 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-102100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern VA...DC...MD...DE...
southeastern PA...and western NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101830Z - 102100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Mainly isolated tree damage may occur with storms this
afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to increase in coverage over
parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains in central VA. Another isolated
storm was located in south-central PA as of 1830Z. Current
expectations are for scattered storms to develop through the
remainder of the afternoon along/east of the Blue Ridge along a weak
surface trough. Mid-level flow is quite weak across VA/MD (20 kt or
less per recent VWP estimated from KLWX), and it strengthens only
modestly with northward extent into south-central PA. Still, with
around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE present and somewhat steepened
low-level lapse rates, a mix of pulse storms and perhaps a small
cluster or two may ultimately occur. Wet microbursts and/or gusty
outflow winds capable or producing mainly isolated tree damage will
likely be the main severe threat. Given the lack of stronger
low/mid-level flow, the overall severe threat is expected to remain
too marginal to justify watch issuance.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37717892 38227838 39177808 40617691 40827612 40677490
            40077464 38627604 37787696 37167774 36737829 36867889
            37227929 37717892 

NNNN